Breakage sits at the center of a tension every program manages. Unredeemed points shrink the liability and flatter short-term economics, but they are also the clearest signal of disengagement: a member whose points quietly expire is a member the program failed to activate. Healthy programs treat low breakage among their best members as the goal, not the cost.
Estimating breakage is consequential because the estimate feeds directly into revenue recognition. Finance teams forecast it from historical redemption curves, segment behavior, and expiry policy, and auditors scrutinize the assumptions. An estimate that proves wrong forces a liability adjustment that shows up in reported results.
Program design moves breakage in both directions. Long expiry windows, low-denomination rewards, and reminder mechanics push it down by giving members realistic paths to redeem. Short expiries and high reward thresholds push it up, along with the disengagement that comes with them.
How GRAVTY handles this: GRAVTY keeps earn and redemption history at the transaction level, so breakage models work from real curves per segment, and Pulsar flags churn-risk members before their balances go dormant.
